Ireland, Georgia, Lehman Brothers. Three catastrophic failures in almost as many months set the scene for the elections to the European Parliament on 4 June next year. Liberal Democrats know that these elections will not be easy. We begin the campaign in fourth place. One of our 12 MEPs elected in 2004 defected to the Tories. Finance is tight, and the media largely ignorant and hostile. That the Lisbon treaty is not yet in place means, inevitably, that there will be much mind-numbing argument between the parties about the powers and institutions of the EU.
The anti-Europe terrain in Britain is well populated. The Tories, UKIP and BNP will vie for the votes of those who dislike or fear the European Union. Even the simplistic Greens oppose the Treaty of Lisbon and more European integration. In the pro-Europe camp, by contrast, the Lib Dems and Labour are thrown together. Labour is hoping that the financial crisis will repair Gordon Brown's reputation (particularly dreary, one recalls, on Europe). Liberal Democrats have an ex-MEP as party leader, fighting his first nation-wide election. Nick Clegg is unable to disguise his European credentials even if he tries.
The critical international events also favour our campaign. Because the EU cannot rise to meet these challenges without Lisbon, the Irish are being obliged have a second go at getting the answer right. Despite the fears of some member states, EU engagement with Russia is bound to intensify. The ground rules of economic and monetary union will be revised to strengthen the economic governance of the Union, and in particular that of the eurozone. In these circumstances, it may even be possible to revive the stalled WTO trade talks. The global crisis sharpens the need for political union in Europe.
At home and in our wider European Liberal family, electoral programmes are being drafted. Central to our campaign is the goal of reaching agreement on the tough package of energy policy and climate change measures. The costs of adjustment are high, but they will grow if action is delayed. ALDE will press for a reform of the EU budget so that funding matches our political priorities and the scale of our ambition.
In this campaign, strong federalist forces are needed to confront the resurgence of nationalism across Europe. Liberals find their rightful place in the front rank.
Andrew Duff MEP has been elected President of the Union of European Federalists.
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